TRACK RECORD
Track record
Every prediction ContextXI has published and then graded against a real result — 23,611 of them since 4 September 2026. The backtest that validated the model before any of this is in the second tab.
PREDICTED VS ACTUAL
Predicted 22.3% on average · happened 22.7%
0.4pp above the rate those predictions claimed, across 23,611 graded predictions.
75 matches · Premier League and La Liga · since 4 September 2026 · 5,364 of 23,611 predicted events happened
One pooled figure mixes a 9% prediction with an 80% one, and a model can hit it while being wrong in both directions. The brackets below are the honest read.
BY CONFIDENCE BRACKET
How each label actually performed
| Bracket | Predictions | Avg predicted | Actually occurred | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very Likely 50%+ | 3,226 | 60.1% | 60.7% | +0.6pp |
| Likely 25-49% | 5,557 | 36.3% | 37% | +0.7pp |
| Possible 10-24% | 6,231 | 16.2% | 16.4% | +0.2pp |
| Unlikely under 10% | 8,597 | 3.4% | 3.8% | +0.4pp |
Finer breakdown — 10-point bands
| Band | Predictions | Avg predicted | Actually occurred | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 8,597 | 3.4% | 3.8% | +0.4pp |
| 10-20% | 4,636 | 14.2% | 14.4% | +0.2pp |
| 20-30% | 2,900 | 24.2% | 23.8% | -0.4pp |
| 30-40% | 2,295 | 34.5% | 35.7% | +1.2pp |
| 40-50% | 1,957 | 44.5% | 45.9% | +1.4pp |
| 50-60% | 1,746 | 54.2% | 54.5% | +0.3pp |
| 60-70% | 1,046 | 64% | 66.7% | +2.7pp |
| 70-80% | 385 | 73.4% | 70.1% | -3.3pp |
| 80-90% | 49 | 83.3% | 81.6% | -1.7pp |
EVERY RESOLVED PREDICTION
Match by match
336 graded predictions · 88 hits · View match
| Stat | Actual | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Agoumé | 1+ Fouls Committed | 74% | 5 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 1+ Shots | 73% | 2 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 73% | 3 | Hit |
| Roger Brugué | 1+ Shots | 70% | 4 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 1+ Fouls Committed | 68% | 1 | Hit |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 1+ Shots | 68% | 3 | Hit |
| Thiago Fernández | 1+ Shots | 65% | 2 | Hit |
| Petar Ratkov | 1+ Shots | 65% | 1 | Hit |
| Adrián Dela | 1+ Shots | 64% | 4 | Hit |
| Adrián Dela | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 64% | 1 | Hit |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 64% | 0 | Miss |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 63% | 0 | Miss |
| Manu Sánchez | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 62% | 2 | Hit |
| Kike Salas | 1+ Fouls Committed | 62% | 0 | Miss |
| Isaac Romero | 1+ Shots | 62% | 2 | Hit |
| Juan Iglesias | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 62% | 0 | Miss |
| Félix Correia | 1+ Shots | 62% | 2 | Hit |
| Gabriel Suazo | 1+ Fouls Committed | 61% | 1 | Hit |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 1+ Fouls Committed | 59% | 0 | Miss |
| Adrián Dela | 1+ Fouls Committed | 58% | 1 | Hit |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 58% | 0 | Miss |
| Yanis Musuayi | 1+ Shots | 58% | 0 | Miss |
| Juan Iglesias | 1+ Fouls Committed | 58% | 3 | Hit |
| Robbie Ure | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 58% | 3 | Hit |
| Youssouf Fofana | 1+ Shots | 58% | 3 | Hit |
| Paco Cortés | 1+ Shots | 57% | 0 | Miss |
| Alfon González | 1+ Shots | 57% | 0 | Miss |
| Jon Guridi | 1+ Fouls Committed | 57% | 0 | Miss |
| Iván Romero | 1+ Fouls Committed | 56% | 1 | Hit |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 1+ Fouls Committed | 56% | 0 | Miss |
| Félix Correia | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 56% | 0 | Miss |
| Jeremy Toljan | 1+ Fouls Committed | 55% | 0 | Miss |
| Manu Sánchez | 1+ Fouls Committed | 55% | 2 | Hit |
| Yanis Musuayi | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 55% | 0 | Miss |
| Petar Ratkov | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 55% | 1 | Hit |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 1+ Shots | 55% | 0 | Miss |
| Víctor García | 1+ Fouls Committed | 54% | 0 | Miss |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 1+ Shots | 54% | 2 | Hit |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 1+ Fouls Committed | 54% | 0 | Miss |
| Robbie Ure | 1+ Shots | 54% | 5 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 53% | 1 | Hit |
| Roger Brugué | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 51% | 3 | Hit |
| Víctor García | 1+ Shots | 50% | 1 | Hit |
| Víctor García | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 50% | 2 | Hit |
| Julio Díaz | 1+ Fouls Committed | 50% | 0 | Miss |
| Youssouf Fofana | 1+ Fouls Committed | 50% | 0 | Miss |
| Roger Brugué | 1+ Fouls Committed | 49% | 1 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 1+ Shots On Target | 49% | 2 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 49% | 3 | Hit |
| Paco Cortés | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 49% | 1 | Hit |
| Nacho Pérez | 1+ Fouls Committed | 49% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 49% | 1 | Hit |
| Andrés Castrín | 1+ Fouls Committed | 49% | 1 | Hit |
| Jon Guridi | 1+ Shots | 48% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 1+ Fouls Committed | 47% | 2 | Hit |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 1+ Fouls Committed | 46% | 1 | Hit |
| Kike Salas | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 46% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 2+ Fouls Committed | 46% | 5 | Hit |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 46% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 1+ Shots | 45% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 1+ Fouls Committed | 45% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 1+ Fouls Committed | 45% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 45% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 44% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 44% | 1 | Hit |
| Kike Salas | 1+ Shots | 43% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 1+ Fouls Committed | 43% | 1 | Hit |
| Lucien Agoumé | 1+ Shots | 42% | 1 | Hit |
| Juan Iglesias | 1+ Shots | 42% | 2 | Hit |
| Lucien Agoumé | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 41% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 41% | 1 | Hit |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 40% | 1 | Hit |
| Roger Brugué | 1+ Shots On Target | 39% | 1 | Hit |
| Nacho Pérez | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 39% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 39% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 1+ Fouls Committed | 39% | 2 | Hit |
| Petar Ratkov | 1+ Fouls Committed | 38% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 2+ Fouls Committed | 38% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 1+ Fouls Committed | 38% | 1 | Hit |
| Félix Correia | 1+ Fouls Committed | 38% | 1 | Hit |
| Roger Brugué | 3+ Shots | 36% | 4 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 1+ Shots | 36% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 36% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 36% | 1 | Hit |
| Juan Iglesias | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 36% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 1+ Fouls Drawn | 36% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 1+ Shots On Target | 35% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 1+ Fouls Committed | 35% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 2+ Shots | 35% | 2 | Hit |
| Andrés Castrín | 1+ Shots | 35% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 1+ Shots On Target | 35% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 1+ Shots On Target | 34% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 2+ Shots | 34% | 5 | Hit |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 2+ Shots | 34% | 3 | Hit |
| Yanis Musuayi | 1+ Shots On Target | 33% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 1+ Shots On Target | 33% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 2+ Fouls Committed | 32% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 32% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 1+ Shots On Target | 32% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 1+ Shots | 32% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 1+ Shots On Target | 32% | 1 | Hit |
| Nacho Pérez | 1+ Shots | 31% | 2 | Hit |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 1+ Shots | 31% | 1 | Hit |
| Manu Sánchez | 2+ Fouls Committed | 30% | 2 | Hit |
| Kike Salas | 2+ Fouls Committed | 30% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 1+ Shots On Target | 30% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 1+ Shots On Target | 30% | 1 | Hit |
| Víctor García | 1+ Shots On Target | 29% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 29% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 2+ Shots | 29% | 2 | Hit |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 2+ Fouls Committed | 28% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 2+ Shots | 28% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 2+ Shots | 28% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 1+ Shots On Target | 28% | 1 | Hit |
| Juan Iglesias | 2+ Fouls Committed | 28% | 3 | Hit |
| Jeremy Toljan | 1+ Shots | 27% | 1 | Hit |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 2+ Shots | 27% | 2 | Hit |
| Thiago Fernández | 2+ Shots | 27% | 2 | Hit |
| Alfon González | 2+ Shots | 27% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 27% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Iván Romero | 3+ Shots | 26% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 2+ Shots | 26% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 1+ Shots On Target | 26% | 1 | Hit |
| Adrián Dela | 1+ Shots On Target | 25% | 3 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 2+ Fouls Committed | 25% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 2+ Fouls Committed | 25% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 2+ Fouls Committed | 24% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 24% | 3 | Hit |
| Youssouf Fofana | 2+ Shots | 24% | 3 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 2+ Fouls Committed | 23% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 2+ Shots | 23% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 22% | 2 | Hit |
| Yanis Musuayi | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 22% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 22% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 1+ Shots On Target | 22% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 2+ Fouls Committed | 22% | 2 | Hit |
| Julio Díaz | 1+ Shots | 22% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 2+ Shots On Target | 22% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 2+ Shots | 22% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Roger Brugué | 2+ Shots On Target | 21% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Roger Brugué | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 3 | Hit |
| Iván Romero | 4+ Shots | 21% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 2+ Fouls Committed | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 1+ Shots On Target | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 2+ Fouls Committed | 21% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 1+ Shots | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 1+ Shots On Target | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 3 | Hit |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 21% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Oriol Rey | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 20% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 2+ Fouls Committed | 20% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Roger Brugué | 4+ Shots | 19% | 4 | Hit |
| Adrián Dela | 2+ Shots | 19% | 4 | Hit |
| Jeremy Toljan | 2+ Fouls Committed | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 2+ Shots | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 3+ Shots | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 3+ Shots | 19% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 2+ Shots | 19% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 2+ Shots | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 2+ Fouls Committed | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 2+ Fouls Committed | 19% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 2+ Fouls Committed | 19% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 2+ Fouls Committed | 19% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Roger Brugué | 2+ Fouls Committed | 18% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 18% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 18% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 2+ Fouls Committed | 18% | 2 | Hit |
| Juan Iglesias | 1+ Shots On Target | 18% | 1 | Hit |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 2+ Fouls Committed | 18% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 3+ Shots | 18% | 3 | Hit |
| Youssouf Fofana | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 18% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 17% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 17% | 2 | Hit |
| Thiago Fernández | 3+ Shots | 17% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 1+ Shots On Target | 17% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 17% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Oriol Rey | 2+ Shots | 16% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 3+ Shots | 16% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 16% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 3+ Shots | 16% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 2+ Fouls Committed | 16% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 2+ Fouls Committed | 16% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 2+ Shots | 16% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 16% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 2+ Fouls Committed | 16% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Oriol Rey | 1+ Shots On Target | 15% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Iván Romero | 2+ Shots On Target | 15% | 2 | Hit |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 15% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 2+ Fouls Committed | 14% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 1+ Shots On Target | 14% | 1 | Hit |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 14% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 1+ Shots On Target | 14% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 14% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 14% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 2+ Fouls Committed | 13% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 13% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 13% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 3+ Shots | 13% | 5 | Hit |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 3+ Shots | 13% | 3 | Hit |
| Félix Correia | 2+ Shots On Target | 13% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 3+ Shots | 12% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Juan Iglesias | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 12% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 3+ Shots | 12% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 2+ Shots On Target | 11% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 11% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 2+ Shots On Target | 11% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Petar Ratkov | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 11% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 1+ Shots On Target | 11% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 3+ Shots | 11% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 2+ Shots On Target | 11% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega | 4+ Shots | 11% | 3 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 2+ Shots On Target | 10% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 1+ Shots On Target | 10% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Yanis Musuayi | 4+ Shots | 10% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 2+ Fouls Committed | 10% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 10% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 1+ Shots On Target | 10% | 1 | Hit |
| Petar Ratkov | 4+ Shots | 10% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 2+ Shots On Target | 10% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 10% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 2+ Shots On Target | 10% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 2+ Shots | 9% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 4+ Shots | 9% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Víctor García | 2+ Shots On Target | 9% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 9% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Juan Iglesias | 2+ Shots | 9% | 2 | Hit |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 3+ Shots | 9% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Roger Brugué | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 8% | 3 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 8% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 4+ Shots | 8% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Paco Cortés | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 8% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 8% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 2+ Shots On Target | 8% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Félix Correia | 4+ Shots | 8% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 7% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 3+ Shots | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 2+ Shots | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 4+ Shots | 7% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Thiago Fernández | 2+ Shots On Target | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 2+ Shots | 7% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 3+ Shots | 7% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 4+ Shots | 7% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Isaac Romero | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 4+ Shots | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 1+ Shots On Target | 7% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 3+ Shots | 6% | 4 | Hit |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 3+ Shots | 6% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 2+ Shots On Target | 6% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 2+ Shots | 6% | 2 | Hit |
| Gabriel Suazo | 1+ Shots On Target | 6% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 2+ Shots | 6% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 3+ Shots | 6% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Robbie Ure | 4+ Shots | 6% | 5 | Hit |
| Félix Correia | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 6% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 1+ Shots On Target | 5% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 2+ Shots On Target | 5% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 5% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Alfon González | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 5% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 2+ Shots | 5% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 2+ Shots On Target | 5% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 2+ Shots On Target | 5% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Oriol Rey | 3+ Shots | 4% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 4% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 3+ Shots | 4% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 4% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 4% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 4% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 4+ Shots | 3% | 4 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 2+ Shots On Target | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 2+ Shots On Target | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 2+ Shots On Target | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 2+ Shots | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili | 4+ Shots | 3% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Youssouf Fofana | 4+ Shots | 3% | 3 | Did not occur |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | 4+ Shots | 2% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Daniel Requena Sánchez | 4+ Shots | 2% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Lucien Agoumé | 4+ Shots | 2% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 3+ Shots | 2% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 4+ Shots | 2% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jon Guridi | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Adrián Dela | 2+ Shots On Target | 1% | 3 | Hit |
| Oriol Rey | 4+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 3+ Shots | 1% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 3+ Shots | 1% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 1+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 2+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 3+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 3+ Shots | 1% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 3+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 2+ Shots On Target | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 2+ Shots On Target | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Juan Iglesias | 3+ Shots | 1% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Juan Iglesias | 2+ Shots On Target | 1% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 1+ Fouls Committed | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 3+ Shots | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 2+ Shots On Target | 1% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 4+ Shots | 0% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Jeremy Toljan | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 4+ Shots | 0% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Nacho Pérez | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 3+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 1+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 1+ Fouls Committed | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 2+ Fouls Committed | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Mathew Ryan | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Manu Sánchez | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 4+ Shots | 0% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Ifeanyi Ndukwe | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 1 | Did not occur |
| Kike Salas | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Gabriel Suazo | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Andrés Castrín | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Juan Iglesias | 4+ Shots | 0% | 2 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 1+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 2+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 3+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 1+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 2+ Shots On Target | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 2+ Fouls Committed | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 2+ Fouls Drawn | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | 3+ Fouls Drawn | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
| Julio Díaz | 4+ Shots | 0% | 0 | Did not occur |
Showing the 10 most recently graded matches, out of 75 graded so far — the calibration figures above use every one of them.
HELD-OUT CALIBRATION
Probability bands, observed honestly.
Predictions published at 50-60% occurred 54.5% of the time across 9,046 predictions in the held-out Premier League 2025/26 season.
125,609 predictions · 11 markets · held-out Premier League 2025/26 · model shrinkage-v2 · no band above 10% misses by more than 1.6pp
FULL RESULTS
Every band, including the thin ones
| Band | Predictions | Avg predicted | Actually occurred | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 47,675 | 3.4% | 3.3% | -0.1pp |
| 10-20% | 23,867 | 14.2% | 13.5% | -0.7pp |
| 20-30% | 14,893 | 24.2% | 23.2% | -1pp |
| 30-40% | 11,526 | 34.5% | 33.3% | -1.2pp |
| 40-50% | 11,161 | 44.4% | 43.8% | -0.6pp |
| 50-60% | 9,046 | 54.2% | 54.5% | +0.3pp |
| 60-70% | 5,186 | 63.9% | 64.4% | +0.5pp |
| 70-80% | 1,895 | 73.5% | 75.1% | +1.6pp |
| 80-90% | 360 | 83.5% | 85% | +1.5pp |
Rows marked low-sample sit under 500 predictions — too few to state a calibration claim about. They are shown rather than hidden, but should not be read with the same confidence as the larger bands.
There is no 90–100% band because ContextXI does not publish probabilities that high. Each market has a sufficiency gate above which its calibration has not been validated, and predictions past that gate are withheld rather than shown.
Backtest figures generated 3 September 2026 from POST /api/backtest { mode: 'thresholdSweep' }.
Updates automatically as more fixtures resolve.